Summarizing FX Supply & Demand (Video)

Summarizing FX Supply & Demand (Video): Explore how supply and demand factors influence foreign exchange (FX) rate fluctuations. This video is a preview of FX Initiative’s FX Market Overview course as part of Learning Objective #4.

To learn more, start your FX risk management training today, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples & events at FXCPE.com.

Cash Flow Hedge Considerations

Are you curious about “cash flow” hedge considerations? FX Initiative’s Cash Flow Hedging webinar covers corporate best practices and case studies on hedging forecasted FX transactions, and walks you through pros and cons public and private companies can consider when deciding whether or not to elect “cash flow” hedge accounting treatment. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training >

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Learn FX Balance Sheet Hedging Basics

Would you like to learn FX balance sheet hedging basics? FX Initiative’s Balance Sheet Hedging webinar walks you through common FX asset, liability and equity accounts on the balance sheet, the mark-to-market or fair value accounting process and the ways firms can minimize the income statement impact of fluctuating FX rates using derivatives. Upon completion of this program, Fortune 500 companies and small or medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) alike will learn best practices for optimizing and adjusting balance sheet hedges that can help mitigate the impact of fluctuating FX rates and stabilize periodic reported earnings. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training >

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Practice Pricing FX Derivatives

Would you like to practice pricing FX derivatives? The FX Derivative Speculator is a risk modeling tool you can use to compare and contrast pricing variables and payoff profiles of FX derivatives to analyze the economic impact on cash flows and the financial reporting implications under virtually any FX rate scenario. This customizable and interactive web application quickly and easily demonstrates how higher and lower interest rates determine the forward rate, how the upfront premium of an option is priced and accounted for, and how a zero cost collar blends characteristics of forwards and options. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training >

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Practice Pricing Foreign Exchange Option Contracts

Option contracts are financial contracts that give the buyer the right, not the obligation, to buy or sell a quantity of a particular currency at a specific exchange rate, called the strike rate, on or before a pre-arranged date. A call option is the right to buy a particular currency, and a put option is the right to sell a particular currency. An option is a right, not an obligation, so it will be exercised only when it is favorable to do so.

An option is comprised of two value drivers, (1) intrinsic value, which is the difference between the strike rate on the contract and the then prevailing spot rate in the market, and (2) time value, which is any excess value beyond intrinsic value related to time to maturity.

A purchased option begins its life as an asset in the amount of the option premium paid to the counterparty at inception, typically purely time value, and will expire with a either a positive intrinsic value or zero fair value. When intrinsic value is positive, it is referred to as “in the money” since the strike rate is more favorable than the spot rate, and when intrinsic value is zero is referred to as “at the money” if the strike rate is equal to the spot rate or “out of the money” if the strike rate is less favorable than the spot rate.

Options, when hedging, secure the value of an underlying position, providing 100% protection against unfavorable market moves beyond the strike rate, while retaining 100% participation in favorable market moves, which may justify the premium paid. Options tend to be used most frequently for longer dated exposures such as forecasted transactions, since the greater the timeframe, the greater the potential for the market to move materially, which creates greater potential to participate in favorable market movements.

Options are also attractive for scenarios where there is uncertainty the exposure will materialize, such as a bid to award contract or a forecasted acquisition, since an option is a right, not an obligation. Options provide a high degree of certainty and the greatest degree of flexibility, but are employed less frequently in practice when hedging due to the premium paid up front.

In order to price an option contract, a number of option pricing models can be used in the marketplace, but currency options are priced most often using the Garman-Kohlhagen option-pricing model. The Garman-Kohlhagen option-pricing model is a complex equation that takes into account the following six variables:

1. The spot foreign exchange rate
2. The interest rate on the base currency
3. The interest rate on the terms currency
4. The strike rate of the option
5. The time to expiration
6. The volatility of the currency pair.

To illustrate the concept of an option contract, this Foreign Exchange Derivative Speculator can model the economic and accounting aspects of both a put and a call option. The first step is to select a long position, which represents a call option to buy the currency, or a short position, which represents a put option to sell the currency. The next step is to enter the parameters of the trade, which includes specifying the currency pair, spot rate, trade date, expiration date, notional amount, and currency quoting convention.

In step 2, select an option contract as the foreign exchange derivative instrument, and enter the pricing variables outlined above, which include the domestic and foreign interest rates, the strike rate (which is the exchange rate that the option contract can be exercised at), and the volatility of the currency pair. You can change any of the option variables to instantly see the impact on the premium, or cost, of the option contract.

For example, adjusting the strike rate lower or higher will increase or decrease the premium of the option contract. Similarly, changing the level of implied volatility in the currency pair impacts the price of the option as well, whereby the more volatile the currency pair, the more expensive the option premium.

In step 3, the ending spot rate can be adjusted to see how changes in the spot rate on the expiration date impact the economic value of the option contract. This tool demonstrates how the option will only be exercised when the strike price is more favorable than the ending spot rate. If the ending spot rate is more favorable for buying or selling the currency than the strike rate, the option finishes "out of the money" such that the maximum loss on the contract is the premium paid. Conversely, if the ending spot rate is less favorable for buying or selling the currency than the strike rate, the option finishes "in the money" and equals a positive value.

You can practice pricing foreign exchange options using the Foreign Exchange Derivative Speculator to illustrate the economics and accounting of an option contract, both a put and a call, and to see how variables such as the option strike rate and implied volatility impact the premium or cost of the option at inception. Additionally, you can explore how options can finish "in the money" where a cash payment is received at maturity, or "out of the money" with a zero fair value where no further payment is required to settle the contract.

Take advantage of this unique learning resource to discover the three key distinguishing characteristics of vanilla option contracts, which include (1) the premium paid upfront, (2) the asymmetrical payoff profile relative to the spot foreign exchange rate, and (3) the lack of obligation to make a payment at maturity.

If you are interested in learning more about option contracts, sign up for FX Initiative's Currency Risk Management Training and benefit from our educational videos and interactive examples. Our course on Foreign Exchange Spot & Derivatives walks you through real-world examples of using derivative instruments, and leverages our Foreign Exchange Derivative Speculator to illustrate essential concepts. Foreign exchange options pricing can be complex, but our approach simplifies the academic theory and focuses on the practical application of using options to help your international organization achevei their foreign exchange risk management objectives.

Ready to practice pricing foreign exchange options? Click here to get started!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Commemorating Forty-One (41) Years of Fiat Currency

This week marks 41 years since the definition of the U.S. dollar was officially changed through Public Law 94-564 on October 19, 1976. The result was a shift in U.S. monetary policy where the gold standard, which pegged all currencies to the U.S. dollar (USD) and fixed value in terms of gold, was replaced by our current system of freely floating fiat currencies, where currency no longer holds intrinsic value and is established as money by government regulation or law. This was the most notable event during the Nixon Shock, which was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon beginning in 1971, and shaped the nature of the foreign exchange market as it exists today.

Source: http://uscode.house.gov/statutes/pl/94/564.pdf

The free floating system of fiat currencies is best illustrated by the U.S. dollar Index (DXY) that was introduced in March of 1973. The DXY is a measure of the value of the United States dollar (USD) relative to a basket of foreign currencies, which include the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Pound Sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). At its start, the value of the U.S. Dollar Index was 100.000, and it has since traded as high as 164.7200 in February 1985, and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008. The DXY goes up when the U.S. dollar gains value when compared to other currencies, and goes down when the U.S. dollar loses value. The following graph shows the volatility in the value of the U.S. dollar over the last 50 years in relation to various political, economic and other major global events.

Source: US Dollar Index from Stooq.com

Free floating exchange rates are determined by the balance between supply and demand factors that influence a particular currency, and the intersection point where supply meets demand establishes what is known as the price equilibrium or exchange rate. The graph below of supply and demand shows that when there is an increase in demand and a corresponding shift of the demand curve to the right, a new intersection point where supply meets demand is established, and a new price equilibrium or exchange rate is set. In this case, as demand increases, the value or price of the currency also increases from Exchange Rate 1 to Exchange Rate 2. These fluctuations in currency values underscore the concept of exchange rate risk, or currency risk, which arises from the change in price of one currency against another.

Source: FX Initiative FX Market Overview Course

Supply and demand with respect to foreign currency valuations is a simple idea in theory. If at a particular exchange rate, demand exceeds supply, the price will rise, and if supply exceeds demand, the price will fall. Supply is influenced by a central bank’s monetary authority through monetary policy, and depending on the specific circumstances and economic goals of a country or region, a monetary authority will influence the money supply through interest rates and other market mechanisms. Demand, on the other hand, comes from a multitude of market forces including, but not limited to, (1) economic business cycles and economic data releases (2) international investment patterns and foreign direct investment (3) the balance of payments as it relates to tradable goods and services (4) government fiscal, monetary, or other policies and political developments and (5) speculation based on any or all of these factors.

Source: FX Initiative FX Market Overview Course

Over the last 40 years, governments have played a significant role in defining and driving the value of free floating fiat currencies. Since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, exchange rates have been impacted by several major foreign exchange interventions as follows:

• Venezuela’s introduction of a two-tier official exchange rate system for the Venezuelan bolívar in January 2010
• The Bank of Japan’s devaluation of the Japanese yen though quantitative easing and “Abenomics” in April of 2013
• The Central Bank of Russia allowing the Russian ruble to float freely in an attempt to stabilize value in November of 2014
• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) no longer holding the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro in January 2015
• Brexit’s impact on the British pound following the United Kingdom’s referendum to withdraw from the European Union in June 2016

In commemoration of the week that changed the foreign exchange market as we know it, we can look at free floating exchange rates through the lens of history and see how the events of the 1970’s are still impacting the value of more than 180 currencies recognized as legal tender in circulation throughout the world.

To learn more about the foreign exchange market and how to manage currency risk, explore FX Initiative’s educational videos, interactive examples, and webinar events. Our currency risk management training illustrates best practices from leading organizations such as Apple to help you efficiently and effectively mitigate foreign exchange risk for your international business. Learn how to assess and optimize your firm's foreign exchange risk profile by taking the FX Initiative today!

Ready to conquer currency risk? Click here to get started!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com