Commemorating Forty-One (41) Years of Fiat Currency

This week marks 41 years since the definition of the U.S. dollar was officially changed through Public Law 94-564 on October 19, 1976. The result was a shift in U.S. monetary policy where the gold standard, which pegged all currencies to the U.S. dollar (USD) and fixed value in terms of gold, was replaced by our current system of freely floating fiat currencies, where currency no longer holds intrinsic value and is established as money by government regulation or law. This was the most notable event during the Nixon Shock, which was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon beginning in 1971, and shaped the nature of the foreign exchange market as it exists today.

Source: http://uscode.house.gov/statutes/pl/94/564.pdf

The free floating system of fiat currencies is best illustrated by the U.S. dollar Index (DXY) that was introduced in March of 1973. The DXY is a measure of the value of the United States dollar (USD) relative to a basket of foreign currencies, which include the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Pound Sterling (GBP), Canadian dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK) and Swiss franc (CHF). At its start, the value of the U.S. Dollar Index was 100.000, and it has since traded as high as 164.7200 in February 1985, and as low as 70.698 on March 16, 2008. The DXY goes up when the U.S. dollar gains value when compared to other currencies, and goes down when the U.S. dollar loses value. The following graph shows the volatility in the value of the U.S. dollar over the last 50 years in relation to various political, economic and other major global events.

Source: US Dollar Index from Stooq.com

Free floating exchange rates are determined by the balance between supply and demand factors that influence a particular currency, and the intersection point where supply meets demand establishes what is known as the price equilibrium or exchange rate. The graph below of supply and demand shows that when there is an increase in demand and a corresponding shift of the demand curve to the right, a new intersection point where supply meets demand is established, and a new price equilibrium or exchange rate is set. In this case, as demand increases, the value or price of the currency also increases from Exchange Rate 1 to Exchange Rate 2. These fluctuations in currency values underscore the concept of exchange rate risk, or currency risk, which arises from the change in price of one currency against another.

Source: FX Initiative FX Market Overview Course

Supply and demand with respect to foreign currency valuations is a simple idea in theory. If at a particular exchange rate, demand exceeds supply, the price will rise, and if supply exceeds demand, the price will fall. Supply is influenced by a central bank’s monetary authority through monetary policy, and depending on the specific circumstances and economic goals of a country or region, a monetary authority will influence the money supply through interest rates and other market mechanisms. Demand, on the other hand, comes from a multitude of market forces including, but not limited to, (1) economic business cycles and economic data releases (2) international investment patterns and foreign direct investment (3) the balance of payments as it relates to tradable goods and services (4) government fiscal, monetary, or other policies and political developments and (5) speculation based on any or all of these factors.

Source: FX Initiative FX Market Overview Course

Over the last 40 years, governments have played a significant role in defining and driving the value of free floating fiat currencies. Since the financial crisis of 2007–2008, exchange rates have been impacted by several major foreign exchange interventions as follows:

• Venezuela’s introduction of a two-tier official exchange rate system for the Venezuelan bolívar in January 2010
• The Bank of Japan’s devaluation of the Japanese yen though quantitative easing and “Abenomics” in April of 2013
• The Central Bank of Russia allowing the Russian ruble to float freely in an attempt to stabilize value in November of 2014
• The Swiss National Bank (SNB) no longer holding the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro in January 2015
• Brexit’s impact on the British pound following the United Kingdom’s referendum to withdraw from the European Union in June 2016

In commemoration of the week that changed the foreign exchange market as we know it, we can look at free floating exchange rates through the lens of history and see how the events of the 1970’s are still impacting the value of more than 180 currencies recognized as legal tender in circulation throughout the world.

To learn more about the foreign exchange market and how to manage currency risk, explore FX Initiative’s educational videos, interactive examples, and webinar events. Our currency risk management training illustrates best practices from leading organizations such as Apple to help you efficiently and effectively mitigate foreign exchange risk for your international business. Learn how to assess and optimize your firm's foreign exchange risk profile by taking the FX Initiative today!

Ready to conquer currency risk? Click here to get started!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Balancing Brexit & FX Balance Sheet Hedging

As Brexit continues to capture news headlines, FX Initiative is increasingly helping North American companies manage the currency risk associated with doing business in the United Kingdom (UK). Brexit refers to the prospective withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), which was voted on in June of 2016. Since the referendum, the value of the British pound (GBP) versus the US dollar (USD) has fluctuated from highs near 1.4500 levels in June of 2016 to lows near 1.2000 levels in January of 2017. This approximate 15% decline in value has prompted many international companies to adapt their foreign exchange (FX) hedging programs to better stabilize earnings and preserve cash flows.

American companies exporting to the United Kingdom have seen significant fluctuations in their GBP denominated revenues and accounts receivables (A/R), which are translated into USD in their financial statements for accounting purposes. To state the obvious, the 15% fluctuation in GBP/USD exchange rates over a 15 month period has created sizable swings in earnings and cash flows for firms that operate with a non-GBP functional currency. To mitigate this volatility, one major US pharmaceutical company needed to reconsider their FX balance sheet hedge program to better respond to the changing political landscape and unpredictable currency market prices.

Balance sheet hedging is by far the most common approach among multinational corporations when hedging foreign exchange risk, and in the context of Brexit, refers to hedging GBP denominated receivables and payables on the balance sheet as part of a systematic hedge program at each period or month end, or upon booking a material foreign currency denominated transaction. This US pharmaceutical company was previously hedging at each month end to adjust and match the amount of the their underlying GBP receivables with the amount of their GBP forward contract hedges. However, the majority of their monthly receivable bookings occurred on the 15th of each month, and their mid-month A/R bookings were largely unhedged from the middle of the month through month end.

To address this problem, FX Initiative helped assess the mechanics of their balance sheet hedge program by looking at their financial reporting process and specifically at their accounting booking convention. An accounting booking convention refers to the foreign exchange rate used to record a transaction on the financial statements. In this case, they were using the daily spot rate, which meant they were exposed to changes in exchange rates for each mid-month booking of a material GBP receivable transaction. By probing all the way down to the accounting booking convention, this US company was able to quickly and effectively enhance their balance sheet hedge program by adding one additional “true-up” hedge mid-month.

Their revised approach meant that rather than only hedging at the end of each month, the company was now adjusting the amounts on their forward contract hedge both mid-month and at month end. The result of this fundamental fix was that the company is now hedging over 90% of their GBP exposure for the entire month, and the FX swings in their monthly and quarterly earnings have declined by over 50%. Regardless of whether you are a FX risk management expert or novice, knowing where to diagnose a FX exposure is critical and having the ability to drill down to a technical level of detail such as an accounting booking convention can help companies conquer currency market challenges more efficiently and effectively.

FX Initiative’s training and consulting services can help your global organization establish and improve your foreign exchange balance sheet hedge program. We use real-world examples from Apple to demonstrate how a balance sheet hedge works in practice, and our risk modeling tools enable you to practice your approach prior to implementation to get comfortable with the economics and accounting. While events like Brexit are hard to predict, a consistent and ongoing foreign exchange risk management program can proactively protect against changing political, regulatory, and economic environments. FX hedging is about making the outcome more certain, so give your company the FX certainty and predictably it needs to succeed abroad by taking the FX Initiative!

Ready to build a better FX balance sheet hedge program? Click here to start your Currency Risk Management training!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Start Learning the ABC’s of FX Risk Management

When it comes to Foreign Exchange Risk Management, finance, accounting and treasury professionals often find themselves dealing with a wide range of complex cash flow and financial reporting issues. In order to provide more sophisticated solutions to complicated problems, it is essential to first build a foundation of knowledge to use as a framework to make decisions. FX Initiative’s currency risk management training helps you learn “The ABC’s of FX” starting with the most basic concepts to help you scale the learning curve and effectively manage FX risk for your business.

Global companies face questions of how to manage currency risk? How to draft a FX risk policy? Where to look for FX risk exposures? What currency risks to hedge and how? Which strategies meet FX hedge objectives? What are the economics? How to do FX accounting?

FX Initiative's foreign exchange risk management training addresses all of these questions with our online video series about:

1. Foreign Exchange (FX) Market Overview
2. FX Risk Exposures
3. FX Risk Management
4. FX Spot & Derivatives
5. Hedging FX Transactions
6. Hedging Foreign Subsidiaries

Then, you can review and test with quizzes and CPE exams. And reinforce learning using real examples with our:

• Currency Code Locator
• FX Risk Policy Drafter
• FX Derivative Speculator
• FX Transaction Simulator
• FX Subsidiary Consolidator

FX Initiative training is available 24/7 365 to help you with FX risk policies, FX accounting, FX hedging strategies, and FX risk management.

Are you ready to manage FX risk?  Take the FX Initiative by subscribing today!

If you are ready to deliver better results to the bottom line, become a FX Initiative subscriber today and access our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Managing FX risk has become a higher priority for many firms recently, and it is now easier than ever to learn the fundamentals of currency risk management. Take the FX Initiative for your international business today!

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Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

How Brexit Impacts the FX Bottom Line

Many have read about Brexit in the news headlines, which is a term that refers to the United Kingdom's planned withdrawal from the European Union (EU). Since the EU referendum took place in June of 2016, the British pound sterling (GBP) has declined in value against the U.S. dollar (USD) by roughly 15% from June 24, 2016 levels which hovered around the 1.4500 mark to approximately 1.2500 levels as of April 17, 2017. In less than a year, many companies with foreign currency exposure to the British pound sterling have seen a serious impact to the bottom line of the income statement.

Looking at this political event from a foreign exchange risk management perspective, Brexit would fall under the category of foreign exchange economic risk that is covered in FX Initiative’s FX Risk Exposures course. Economic risk relates to the macro impact fluctuating foreign exchange rates have on business opportunities, and includes the risk associated with the political, economic, and regulatory environment of the country or region in which a firm is conducting business.

The following 3 minute video clip from FX Initiative’s FX Risk Exposures course describes the concept of foreign exchange economic risk, and highlights 2 examples which include Venezuela’s 2010 changes in government policy and Apple’s 2015 10-K disclosures. While Brexit type events may not be predictable or preventable, companies can protect themselves over an extended time frame by laying out a long term and sustainable foreign exchange risk management plan.

If you are interested in learning more about the different types of foreign exchange risk and how you can protect your company against adverse changes in exchange rates, sign up for our Foreign Exchange Risk Management Training today and access our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Managing FX risk has become a higher priority for many firms for 2017 and it is now easier than ever to learn the fundamentals of currency risk management. Make this the year to reduce FX risk and reap rewards abroad by taking the FX Initiative for your international business today!

Click here to start your FX Risk Management Training today!

Cheers to your global organization's continued success in the new year,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com