Learn Where to Look for FX Risk

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Explore the Zero Sum Game of FX Gains & Losses

Hedging foreign exchange risk can be viewed as a zero sum game, meaning that when one side of the hedge gains the other side loses. The degree by which those gains and losses do or do not perfectly offset depends on the derivative instrument, hedge coverage level, and strategy used. The FX hedge game isn't about winning or losing, it's about making the outcome more certain.

Balance sheet hedging is the most common practice among multinational corporations, and the goal is often to reduce foreign exchange gains and losses on the income statement to zero. The most effective way to largely achieve this goal is to hedge using a forward contract, which has a symmetrical payoff profile relative to the spot exchange rate, and to hedge 100% of the underlying exposure. However, even under this perfect scenario, there will still be residual FX gains and losses reported in earnings.

When companies hedge near 100% of their balance sheet exposures using forward contracts, controllers and treasurers often wonder why they are never able to achieve that zero sum outcome entirely. This is due to the forward point component of the forward rate on the derivative contract, and the fact that forward contracts are revalued based on forward rates compared to the underlying spot exposure, which is revalued based on spot exchange rates.

As a result, there will almost always be a difference in the "mark-to-market" accounting of a forward contract hedge and an underlying spot exposure. The only time this would not be the case is if interest rates were exactly equal for the countries or regions associated with the two currencies in the pair, which is highly uncommon. This is a typical area of frustration global corporations struggle with, and it highlights that understanding the accounting for underlying exposures and derivatives can clarify why there is a residual impact in earnings. Furthermore, it helps set realistic expectations as to what can be achieved when trying to play the zero sum game of FX hedging.

FX Initiative's Currency Risk Management Training covers balance sheet hedging in detail using Apple as an example to show how multinational corporations can hedge common exposures such as receivables and payables with forward contracts to mitigate foreign exchange gains and losses on the income statement. Our focus is on both the cash flow and financial reporting aspects of the hedge strategy, and we reinforce our teaching with visual displays of the economic and accounting ramifications.

If you are interested in learning how to hedge FX balance sheet exposures, forecasted transactions, and net investments in foreign subsidiaries, start your training today and explore our real world examples of all three scenarios. Furthermore, you can use our FX Transaction Simulator and Foreign Subsidiary Consolidator to customize your own risk model using company specific variables that reflect your actual exposures. Our video based curriculum puts academic theory into practice, and can help you and your team deliver more effective bottom line results in a time efficient manner. Take the FX Initiative for your organization by subscribing here.

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The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Explore the powerful impact of professional development

Professional development in the workplace often refers to required employee training in areas such as workplace safety, corporate policies, and industry specific rules and regulations. While this training is commonplace in the corporate setting, it rarely provides value add to the employee or organization in terms of job performance and customer success.

FX Initiative's approach to professional development focuses on the employee first, and makes results personal and meaningful. We start by identifying knowledge gaps using our Pre-Test Evaluation, then we close those knowledge gaps with our on-demand educational videos, and we reinforce our learning concepts using real-world examples.

Professionals tasked with foreign exchange risk management often know their goals and objectives, but struggle with how to achieve them due to lack of training. Without dedicating time to the learning process and practicing what you've learned, it seems unrealistic to expect positive bottom line results and achievement of plans.

The organizations FX Initiative works with recognize that investing in quality training that directly relates to employee job responsibilities benefits both the employee and the bottom line. Not only are employees more knowledgeable and capable after completing our training, but they are able to apply their knowledge for the benefit of their customers and the firm.

FX training is a win-win outcome. FX sales teams are able to have deeper conversations with clients, gain a better understanding of problems and available solutions, and secure long-term relationships that are mutually beneficial to both parties. Treasury professionals are able to significantly reduce FX gains and losses, preserve cash flows from FX transactions, and articulate their results more clearly and confidently to senior management.

FX Initiative's Currency Risk Management Training provides an actionable and valuable plan for learning foreign exchange that helps FX sales teams collaborate more effectively with treasury professionals. FX service providers and global firms can take full advantage of our unique training opportunity by proactively investing in their employees and organizations. Professional development is no longer something to simply check off the list, it is now a necessity for global companies and their employees to remain competitive and profitable.

Ready to invest in professional development for your organization? Click here to take the FX Initiative!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

You're invited to the FX Forward Contracts webinar!

Attend the FX Risk Management webinar!

Program Overview This FX Risk Management webinar will address the fundamentals of corporate foreign exchange (FX) risk management. We begin with an overview of how leading multinational corporations manage foreign exchange risk. We will then address how FX risk impacts a corporation’s financial statements, including the Income Statement and Balance Sheet, and we will also highlight common disclosures found in annual reports (10-K). Furthermore, we’ll examine key terminology related to FX risk management, and define terms such as FX transaction, translation and economic risk. Finally, we will look at the essential elements of a world class corporate FX risk management program, with a focus on personnel, operations, resources, and policy. The goal of this program is to help global corporations understand the importance of FX risk management and how to assess their foreign exchange risk profile using a structured analysis framework. Learning Objectives Discover how leading multinational corporations manage foreign exchange (FX) risk. Explore FX risks on the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and in annual reports (10-K). Recognize common FX terminology such as transaction, translation and economic risk. Identify essential elements of a world class corporate FX risk management program.   Who Should Attend? New and seasoned finance, accounting, treasury, and related professionals (CPA, CIA, CRMA, CFE, etc.) interested in international business. We look forward to your participation in this live program on Thursday, April 26 2018. Simply click here to register for the presentation! Register

How to Price Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) Derivatives?

Bitcoin (BTC) broke through to a record high of $11,831 over the weekend as volatility in the cryptocurrency continues to rise. Amidst these large and recent price fluctuations, the CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade) announced that its new bitcoin futures contract will be available for trading on December 18, 2017. While the valuation of traditional currency and equity derivatives is well established among professionals working in the financial industry, the introduction of the first cryptocurrency bitcoin derivative poses valuation questions as it relates to a new pricing model. Simply put, how are cryptocurrency derivatives priced?

Financial engineering is a continuously evolving discipline designed to introduce and test new products, pricing models and hypotheses. Currently, equity futures are typically priced using variables such and the risk free interest rate and dividends, and currency forwards are priced based on the foreign and domestic interest rate differential between the two currencies in the pair. Additionally, equity options are typically priced using the Black–Scholes option pricing model, and currency options are priced using the Garman–Kohlhagen option pricing model. All of these equations take into account variables such as dividends and/or interest rates.

However, bitcoin as an asset class does not pay dividends nor is it tied to a specific risk free, domestic or foreign interest rate. As a result, a new or modified version of a derivative pricing model for cryptocurrency that accounts for the unique nature of this new digital asset class will likely be used to value the first bitcoin futures contracts. Many academics and practitioners are sharing their thoughts on the best approach for pricing bitcoin derivatives. A couple of commonly raised questions include: (1) How are dividends removed from the traditional pricing models? and (2) What interest rate(s) should be used? As the financial industry navigates a new frontier with cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, how do you think bitcoin derivatives should be priced?

Ready to learn more about currency and derivatives? Click here to take the FX Initiative today!

The iPhone X Index: A FX Comparison Tool

The Economist magazine first published the Big Mac Index in 1986 as a novel way to compare currency prices. The premise of the Big Mac Index is based on the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP), which states that the exchange rate between two currencies is equal to the ratio of the currencies' respective purchasing power. While this can be a rather sophisticated academic theory, the Economist made the concept of “bugernomics” more relatable to a widespread audience.

In simplest terms, the “burgernomics” of the Big Mac Index implies that the same good, a Big Mac, should cost the same in any two countries based on current market exchange rates. To use an extreme example, if today’s euro (EUR) / U.S. dollar (USD) exchange rate is equal to 1.16 and a Big Mac in the U.S. costs USD 1.16, then a Big Mac in the Eurozone should cost EUR 1.00. When there is a price difference in Big Macs between two countries, one of the two currencies in the pair is considered under or overvalued.

More specifically, the Economist 2017 update to the Big Mac Index shows that “the average price of a Big Mac in America in July 2017 was $5.30; in China it was only $2.92 at market exchange rates. So the "raw" Big Mac index says that the yuan was undervalued by 45% at that time.” While the Big Mac Index is not a precise approach for valuing currencies and identifying arbitrage opportunities, it is a fun and approachable way for the lay person to learn about foreign exchange valuations.

Click here to explore the Economist’s interactive Big Mac Index

To expand the analysis to other goods and services, FX Initiative has applied the same logic to create the iPhone X Index. For example, the recently released iPhone X is a high demand global product that Apple sells to consumers worldwide in several different currencies. In theory, the same iPhone X should cost the same in any two countries based on current market exchange rates. However, similar to the Big Mac Index, there is a significant variation in U.S. dollar equivalent costs as follows:

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From this simple example, we can see that the best value is purchasing an iPhone X denominated in Japanese Yen, which saves approximately USD 1.00 or 0.10% compared to U.S. dollar pricing. In contrast, the worst deal appears to be purchasing an iPhone X denominated in euros, which would cost an additional USD 369 or 36.9% more. The FX economic misalignment is clear from a theoretical perspective, but practically speaking most consumers will still buy the iPhone X in their local currency.

This article underscores FX Initiative’s mission to make complex foreign currency matters simple and manageable. Our currency risk management training provides educational videos, interactive examples, and webinar events on best practices from leading companies such as Apple. We help global businesses and financial institutions optimize their foreign exchange risk profiles to efficiently and effectively mitigate earnings volatility and preservice cash flows. To get started, take the FX Initiative today!

Talking Tax Reform, Repatriation & $2.6 Trillion Overseas

Talk of tax repatriation holidays and foreign profits held overseas often accompany the conversation of corporate tax reform. Currently, congress is working with politicians and business leaders to make a plan by year-end. While there is widespread agreement that tax avoidance strategies employed by multinational corporations are a growing problem, there is considerable disagreement in congress over how to solve this problem. Therefore, this article will examine the vast sums of foreign profits currently held by American corporations overseas, the effect of the last U.S. tax repatriation holiday in 2004, and the conflicting objectives between businesses and government over the highest and best use of funds.

In March of 2017, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) reported that 322 of Fortune 500 companies collectively held a record $2.6 trillion offshore. It is well documented that the business decision to keep foreign profits overseas is driven by tax avoidance strategies, with the goal of minimizing a firm’s tax liability. As it stands today, companies that repatriate foreign profits do so at a 35 percent U.S. tax rate (minus a tax credit equal to taxes the company paid to foreign governments). Since many corporations strategically stash their cash in countries that are deemed tax havens with low corporate tax rates, the U.S. tax credit they would receive upon repatriation may be insignificant. Therefore, companies strategically keep foreign profits overseas, and they become taxable in the U.S. only if and when a company chooses to brings funds home at their discretion.

To put the enormity of these foreign currency denominated cash reserves in context, the top 3 companies alone held more than half a trillion dollars at the end of 2016. Specifically, Apple reported more than $230 billion, Pfizer reported more than $197 billion, and Microsoft reported roughly $124 billion based on the figures in their 2016 annual reports (10-K). The diversity of companies employing tax avoidance strategies is industry agnostic and includes the world’s largest technology, pharmaceutical, financial, and energy companies among other sectors. Overall, the information from SEC filings clearly proves that American companies are holding vast sums of money overseas largely to avoid taxes, and the tax rules and accounting standards as they are written today provide several loopholes and opportunities that help facilitate and exacerbate these strategies.

Apple clearly has the biggest stake on the corporate side of the debate, and CEO Tim Cook recently stated in an interview with Lester Holt of NBC News that “the biggest issue with corporations in this country is that if you earn money outside of the United States, which most companies increasingly will, and it’s taxed in those countries by the way, the only way that you can bring it into the U.S. and invest, is if you pay 40% - for us. This is kind of a crazy thing to do, so what do people do? They don’t bring it to the United States.” Apple is perhaps the most vocal and recognizable brand among many other technology giants that spent a record amount on lobbying for a lower corporate tax rate in the second quarter of 2017.

The proposed solution is a repatriation tax holiday, which would provide a temporary reduction in U.S. corporate tax rates to encourage bringing profits home to invest in the domestic economy and create jobs. The Trump Administration, the House Committee on Ways and Means, and the Senate Committee on Finance recently released a Unified Framework for Fixing Our Broken Tax Code that claims it will end “the perverse incentive to keep foreign profits offshore by exempting them when they are repatriated to the United States.” It is reported that the most recent bill proposes a one-time tax of 12 percent on U.S. companies’ accumulated offshore earnings that are held as cash and 5 percent for non-cash holdings.

Historically, a tax repatriation holiday was enacted in 2004 as part of the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 (AJCA). Specifically, section 965 allowed multinational corporations to repatriate foreign profits to the United States at a 5.25% tax rate, rather than the existing 35% corporate tax rate. The result was that corporations repatriated $362 billion back to the U.S., and the largest multinational companies only brought back approximately 9% of their overseas cash positions. In turn, companies used these funds to pay dividends, repurchase shares, and acquire other companies rather than invest in the economy and create jobs. The corporate actions fueled by the legislation set a poor precedent for encouraging politicians to support future proposals of a similar nature, and a second repatriation tax holiday was defeated in the United States Senate in 2009.

While most business leaders and politicians can agree on the problem, finding the right solution remains an ongoing challenge. As it relates to the highest and best use (HBU) of funds, government is most interested in using taxpayer resources to achieve steady economic growth and low unemployment whereas business is most interested in using capital to minimize risk and maximize short and long term profits for shareholders. As a result of these conflicting objectives, businesses that utilize repatriated funds to invest in jobs and innovation may be taking on additional risk and sacrificing profit maximization opportunities. On the other hand, governments that offer tax repatriation holidays may be sacrificing shorter term tax revenue opportunities in exchange for longer term economic growth and job creation that may never materialize.

It has been over 13 years since the last tax repatriation holiday, and businesses and politicians will continue to debate the costs and benefits of new legislation. With a new administration in the White House, newsmakers are reporting a renewed sense of optimism that a potential deal can be reached that benefits multinational corporations and taxpayers alike. Gary Cohn, the director of the National Economic Council and President Donald Trump's top economic adviser, states that he wants tax reform done this year. The 2017 calendar of the U.S. House of Representatives shows the last legislative session will be held on December 14th, 2017, which leaves them with 20 sessions to reach an agreement and get tax reform done this calendar year.

If you were involved in the corporate tax reform debate, how would you approach the topic of repatriating foreign profits held overseas? From a taxpayer perspective, how would you encourage businesses to use these funds to invest in the economy and create jobs? From a shareholder perspective, how would you expect a corporation to use repatriated funds responsibly? What incentives or penalties would you impose to promote the best possible outcome for all parties? These are tough questions to answer, and finding a mutually agreeable solution between taxpayers and shareholders is at the center of the debate. As congress continues the conversation, join the discussion and share your thoughts and comments.

FX Initiative is an independent informational platform focused on foreign exchange. We help multinational corporations assess and mitigate foreign currency risk. The strategic and unbiased advice we provide global companies helps them proactively plan for events such as tax repatriation holidays. Whether you are looking to preserve the U.S. dollar value of your foreign currency cash reserves, hedge the net investment position in your foreign subsidiaries, or analyze the cash flow and accounting implications of a proposed repatriation strategy, we have the expertise, tools, and resources to efficiently and effectively optimize your plan. To benefit from FX Initiative’s advisory services or to learn more about foreign exchange risk management and repatriating foreign profits, contact us today by emailing support@fxinitiative.com or visiting our website at https://fxcpe.com.

Comparing Cryptocurrency to Foreign Currency

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have captured headlines in 2017, and the question of how modern cryptocurrencies compare to traditional foreign currencies is often raised. FX Initiative helps global businesses manage foreign exchange (FX) risk, and this article will explore some of the key differences between cryptocurrency and foreign currency from a corporate foreign exchange risk management perspective.

It is clear that cryptocurrencies are still in their infancy, but the debate in the financial community over the future growth of this digital asset class remains open. While many articles have focused on areas such as monetary authorities, regulation, costs, timing, and transparency, this article will offer a unique focus specifically on the areas of acceptance, exchange, utilization, obsolescence, and risk management.

Acceptance
A small but growing number of brand name companies promote their acceptance of Bitcoin, such as Overstock.com, DISH Network, Expedia, Microsoft, and others. In fact, Coinbase claims that 47,000 businesses integrate Bitcoin with their service. However, companies such as Dell and Fiverr announced their acceptance of Bitcoin in 2014 but have since updated their policies to no longer accept Bitcoin. As it stands today, cryptocurrency, unlike foreign currency, is not a universally acceptable medium of exchange for procuring goods and services.

Exchange
It is important to note that most major corporations who accept cryptocurrency are partnered with digital asset intermediaries such as BitPay and Coinbase to instantly exchange Bitcoin for fiat money such as U.S. dollars or euros. By doing so, the companies minimize their holding period and financial exposure to the heightened volatility of a cryptocurrency. Unlike foreign currency, which is not always immediately exchanged, a company’s acceptance of cryptocurrency largely depends on their partnership with intermediaries to transfer the financial risk immediately.

Utilization
While Bitcoin is increasingly used by investors and consumers, businesses still lack widespread utility for the cryptocurrency. For example, when a company earns foreign currency denominated revenue, they may also have foreign currency denominated expenses (i.e. payroll, suppliers, vendors, cost of goods, etc.), which creates a natural utility for the foreign currency. In contrast, most corporations that earn Bitcoin denominated revenue lack Bitcoin denominated expenses, which reduces the utility of the cryptocurrency for funding ongoing business operations.

Obsolescence
Although Bitcoin is perhaps the most well known cryptocurrency, there were over 200 initial coin offerings (ICO) in 2017, which collectively raised more than $3.2 billion. The following white papers on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash, Monero, Bancor, Tezos, and EOS explain the pros and cons of each project, and there remains a high degree of uncertainty as to which cryptocurrency will emerge as the long term market leader. Unlike foreign currency, specific cryptocurrencies have the potential to become obsolete as newer and better technology evolves over time.

Risk Management
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) warned about the potential issues with virtual currencies such as unclear costs, volatile exchange rates, the threat of hacking and scams, and companies not offering help or refunds for lost or stolen funds. Additionally, the most viable current means of managing Bitcoin's financial risk is simply transferring ownership though intermediaries. If and when firms such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange launch bitcoin derivatives trading products, foreign currencies have superior risk management products & services.

Overall, foreign currencies are widely accepted, easily exchanged, naturally utilized, lack obsolescence, and offer a range of risk management tools to mitigate risk such as over the counter (OTC) and exchange traded derivatives including forwards, swaps, options and futures. As we approach the 10 year anniversary of Bitcoin’s introduction, the adaptation of cryptocurrency in the business world will continue to be notable and newsworthy. Join the ongoing discussion and share your comments and stories on cryptocurrency and its impact on business.

FX Initiative is collaborating with cryptocurrency experts to help educate the business community. We’re creating compelling content and interactive risk modeling tools for simulating Bitcoin denominated transactions, hypothetical hedging instruments, and policies and procedures to facilitate a wider understanding of the practical application and potential of cryptocurrency. To learn more about foreign exchange risk management or to participate in our cryptocurrency collaborations, contact us here, email support@fxinitiative.com or visit FX Initiative at https://fxcpe.com.