Fine-tuning FX Forecasting Fine-tuning FX Forecasting (Video): Find out how FX forecasters use technical and fundamental analysis to predict future exchange rates. This video is a preview of FX Initiative’s FX Market Overview course as part of Learning Objective #4. To learn more, start your FX risk management training today, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples & events at FXCPE.com. Start FX Training July 9, 2024By FX Initiative FX Market Overview, General accounting, cashflows, CPE, cross border, currency, derivatives, development, economics, education, events, examples, exchange, finance, forecasting, foreign, forex, fxcpe, fxinitiative, global, hedging, initiative, international, management, markets, payments, professional, risk, trading, training, treasury 0 0 Comment
Hypothetical FX Hedging Simulations To become proficient in any skill, including currency risk management, practice makes perfect. To help companies practice, FX Initiative’s Foreign Exchange Transaction Simulator addresses a wide variety of FX scenarios by stress-testing hypothetical FX hedging strategies. This interactive risk modeling tool illustrates the economics and accounting of the most common hedging strategies for underlying foreign exchange exposures such as revenues, expenses, receivables, and payables. You can simply input your company specific and foreign exchange market variables, and then select your hedging strategy, which includes not hedging or hedging with a forward contract, vanilla option or zero cost collar. The resulting output is a highly detailed interactive FX risk analysis that charts the economic payoff of your selected hedging strategy, ranks the alternative hedging strategies, and reports the accounting journal entries and t-accounts with authoritative references to U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Behind the scenes, our robust pricing engine and database simplifies the risk analysis process for you so you can focus on the bottom line impact to your business. This versatile tool transforms 16 inputs into one information rich analysis in 3 easy steps. Step 1 is to select (1) the Underlying Exposure and input the related variables of (2) Functional Currency, (3) Foreign Currency, (4) Underlying Notional Amount, (5) Beginning Exchange Rate, (6) Currency Quoting Convention, (7) Start Date, (8) End Date and (9) the Day Count. Step 2 is to select a (10) Hedging Strategy and input the related variables of (11) Hedge Ratio %, (12) Domestic Interest Rate, (13) Foreign Interest Rate, (14) Implied Volatility, and (15) the Collar Range. Step 3 is to forecast (16) the ending exchange rate to see how positive and negative changes in exchange rates impact the cash flow and financial reporting of your selected hedging strategy. This FX risk management web application customizes strategies and can be modified efficiently and effectively. For example, if you want to change your underlying exposure or hedge strategy, it’s as simple as one-click. If you want to know which strategy yields the best outcome, all 4 strategies are ranked for you automatically. If you want to see how the default or elective accounting treatment differ, the journal entries and t-accounts are instantly presented side-by-side. This Foreign Exchange Transaction Simulator acts as your own personal quantitative analyst, and puts you in a positions to make a qualified foreign exchange risk management decisions. To begin practicing hypothetical FX hedging, start your FX risk management training today, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples & events at FXCPE.com. Start FX Risk Management Training > October 18, 2022By FX Initiative FX Transaction Simulator, General accounting, analysis, business, CPE, currency, development, economics, education, events, examples, finance, forecasting, fxcpe, fxinitiative, global, international, learning, management, modeling, payments, professional, risk, scenarios, simulations, stress, testing, tools, training, treasury, webinars 0 0 Comment
Fine-tuning FX Forecasting Fine-tuning FX Forecasting (Video): Find out how FX forecasters use technical and fundamental analysis to predict future exchange rates. This video is a preview of FX Initiative’s FX Market Overview course as part of Learning Objective #4. To learn more, start your FX risk management training today, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples & events at FXCPE.com. Start FX Training July 13, 2021By FX Initiative FX Market Overview, General accounting, analysis, corporate, CPE, currency, development, economics, education, employment, events, examples, export, finance, forecasting, fundamental, fxcpe, fxinitiative, GDP, government, hedge, horizon, housing, import, learning, long, management, market, NASBA, professional, rate, regulation, risk, short, technical, time, training, treasury, variables 0 0 Comment
July 2021 Newsletter Summer Learning Sessions: Explore our July newsletter and discover the latest blog posts and insights from FX Initiative. We help finance, accounting, treasury, and sales professionals stay up to date with new training content, CPE webinars, and helpful tips & resources. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training > View Newsletter July 6, 2021By FX Initiative General accounting, balancesheet, currency, derivatives, development, economics, education, examples, exchange, finance, forecasting, foreign, fundamental, fxcpe, fxinitiative, hedging, income, insights, learning, management, newsletter, plans, policy, procedures, professional, risk, statement, technical, training, treasury, updates, videos 0 0 Comment
October 2019 Newsletter Explore our October newsletter and discover the latest blog posts and insights from FX Initiative. We help finance, accounting, treasury, and sales professionals stay up to date with new training content, CPE webinars, and helpful tips & resources. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training > View Newsletter October 1, 2019By FX Initiative Examples, General accounting, balancesheet, call, CPE, currency, derivatives, development, economics, education, examples, finance, forecasting, foreignexchange, forex, fundamental, fxcpe, fxinitiative, gain, hedging, incomestatement, insights, learning, loss, management, newsletter, options, policy, professional, put, risk, technical, training, treasury, updates, videos 0 0 Comment
Fine-tuning FX Forecasting (Video) Fine-tuning FX Forecasting (Video): Find out how FX forecasters use technical and fundamental analysis to predict future exchange rates. This video is a preview of FX Initiative’s FX Market Overview course as part of Learning Objective #4. To learn more, start your FX risk management training today, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples & events at FXCPE.com. Start FX Training September 10, 2019By FX Initiative FX Market Overview, General accounting, analysis, bank, corporate, currency, employment, example, finance, fiscal, forecasting, forex, fundamental, fxcpe, fxinitiative, GDP, government, horizon, housing, interest, long, management, market, monetary, participants, rate, regulation, risk, short, technical, time, training, treasury, variables 0 0 Comment
Explore How To Forecast FX Rates Want to explore how to forecast FX rates? FX Initiative’s FX Market Overview course provides proven best practices and real world examples to help you forecast future exchange rate movements in the $5+ trillion daily FX market, the largest and most liquid market in the world. Get started with our foreign exchange risk management training, which provides 24/7 365 access to our complete suite of foreign exchange (FX) continuing professional education (CPE), examples and events at FXCPE.com. Start Training > Download the PDF January 29, 2019By FX Initiative FX Market Overview, General bestpractices, business, currency, demand, economics, education, forecasting, forex, fxcpe, fxinitiative, international, learning, management, professional, risk, supply, training, treasury 0 0 Comment
How to Forecast Foreign Exchange Rates Forecasting foreign exchange rates is a challenging but necessary aspect of currency risk management. There is no single prescribed method for FX forecasting, and it is a difficult task particularly for those who are not engaged in the market on a daily basis. FX forecasting has a relatively low predictive power as uncertainty always remains a factor, but nonetheless each market participant is responsible for developing an educated guess about what direction exchange rates will move in the short, medium, and long term. The following two techniques are used most commonly to generate an FX forecast. Technical Analysis – Technical analysis uses historical market data to predict shorter and longer-term future exchange rate movements, whereby past prices and volume helps serve as a guide for the future. Fundamental Analysis – Fundamental analysis uses current economic indicators to predict future exchange rates, and considers factors such as interest rates, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, and manufacturing among other areas to assess the present state of the economy and help guide the future. Many market participants use a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis to develop a forecast. Applying these techniques using the euro as an example, a forecaster could use technical analysis by looking at the historical data provided by the Federal Reserve for the Euro/US dollar exchange rate since the introduction of the euro in 1999 to the present day. The forecaster can then observe the range of values, and identify that the high was 1.5759 in July of 2008 and the low was 0.8525 in October of 2000. Given the current euro exchange rate of 1.1800, the forecaster can conclude that the present valuation is towards the lower end of the trading range between 0.8525 and 1.5759 and perhaps is undervalued. Building upon that premise, a forecaster can then use fundamental analysis to assess the current state of the economy in the Eurozone where the euro is used. If the forecaster anticipates a slowdown in economic growth, sluggish earnings, weaker employment, a decline in housing, manufacturing, and GDP, and a low interest rate environment, then there might be more room for the euro to depreciate. Conversely, if the forecaster expected strong growth in economic activity, healthy earnings, rising employment, positive trends in housing, manufacturing, and GDP, and a corresponding rise in interest rates, then perhaps the euro will appreciate in value. All forecasts need to be scaled to a specific time frame, and each market participant must use their best judgment to assess how supply and demand factors will impact foreign exchange rates. There are various views and perspectives among market participants that can differ for good and substantive reasons, and the interpretation of how supply and demand factors determine exchange rates and the generation of a FX forecast is more of an art than a science. A sound foreign exchange market forecast can be challenging to develop in house, so some organizations rely on the consensus forecast among experts or research and insight shared by their banking partners or financial institution to help guide them. To learn more about forecasting foreign exchange rates, sign up for FX Initiative’s currency risk management training for complete access to our educational videos, interactive examples, and live webinar events. We walk you through real-world scenarios and simulated strategies from leading global organization such as Apple to illustrate key learning concepts in a practical and easy to understand format. Foreign exchange is a key component of international business, and FX Initiative can help you mitigate risk and maximize opportunity abroad. Ready to start learning FX Risk Management? Click here to get started! The FX Initiative Team support@fxinitiative.com September 4, 2017By FX Initiative FX Market Overview, General Continuing Professional Education, Currency, Forecasting, Fundamental Analysis, FX, Hypothesis, Management, Technical Analysis, CPE, Foreign Exchange, Guess, Predict, Risk 0 0 Comment