How to Price Cryptocurrency (Bitcoin) Derivatives?

Bitcoin (BTC) broke through to a record high of $11,831 over the weekend as volatility in the cryptocurrency continues to rise. Amidst these large and recent price fluctuations, the CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange & Chicago Board of Trade) announced that its new bitcoin futures contract will be available for trading on December 18, 2017. While the valuation of traditional currency and equity derivatives is well established among professionals working in the financial industry, the introduction of the first cryptocurrency bitcoin derivative poses valuation questions as it relates to a new pricing model. Simply put, how are cryptocurrency derivatives priced?

Financial engineering is a continuously evolving discipline designed to introduce and test new products, pricing models and hypotheses. Currently, equity futures are typically priced using variables such and the risk free interest rate and dividends, and currency forwards are priced based on the foreign and domestic interest rate differential between the two currencies in the pair. Additionally, equity options are typically priced using the Black–Scholes option pricing model, and currency options are priced using the Garman–Kohlhagen option pricing model. All of these equations take into account variables such as dividends and/or interest rates.

However, bitcoin as an asset class does not pay dividends nor is it tied to a specific risk free, domestic or foreign interest rate. As a result, a new or modified version of a derivative pricing model for cryptocurrency that accounts for the unique nature of this new digital asset class will likely be used to value the first bitcoin futures contracts. Many academics and practitioners are sharing their thoughts on the best approach for pricing bitcoin derivatives. A couple of commonly raised questions include: (1) How are dividends removed from the traditional pricing models? and (2) What interest rate(s) should be used? As the financial industry navigates a new frontier with cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, how do you think bitcoin derivatives should be priced?

Ready to learn more about currency and derivatives? Click here to take the FX Initiative today!