Explore the Zero Sum Game of FX Gains & Losses

Hedging foreign exchange risk can be viewed as a zero sum game, meaning that when one side of the hedge gains the other side loses. The degree by which those gains and losses do or do not perfectly offset depends on the derivative instrument, hedge coverage level, and strategy used. The FX hedge game isn't about winning or losing, it's about making the outcome more certain.

Balance sheet hedging is the most common practice among multinational corporations, and the goal is often to reduce foreign exchange gains and losses on the income statement to zero. The most effective way to largely achieve this goal is to hedge using a forward contract, which has a symmetrical payoff profile relative to the spot exchange rate, and to hedge 100% of the underlying exposure. However, even under this perfect scenario, there will still be residual FX gains and losses reported in earnings.

When companies hedge near 100% of their balance sheet exposures using forward contracts, controllers and treasurers often wonder why they are never able to achieve that zero sum outcome entirely. This is due to the forward point component of the forward rate on the derivative contract, and the fact that forward contracts are revalued based on forward rates compared to the underlying spot exposure, which is revalued based on spot exchange rates.

As a result, there will almost always be a difference in the "mark-to-market" accounting of a forward contract hedge and an underlying spot exposure. The only time this would not be the case is if interest rates were exactly equal for the countries or regions associated with the two currencies in the pair, which is highly uncommon. This is a typical area of frustration global corporations struggle with, and it highlights that understanding the accounting for underlying exposures and derivatives can clarify why there is a residual impact in earnings. Furthermore, it helps set realistic expectations as to what can be achieved when trying to play the zero sum game of FX hedging.

FX Initiative's Currency Risk Management Training covers balance sheet hedging in detail using Apple as an example to show how multinational corporations can hedge common exposures such as receivables and payables with forward contracts to mitigate foreign exchange gains and losses on the income statement. Our focus is on both the cash flow and financial reporting aspects of the hedge strategy, and we reinforce our teaching with visual displays of the economic and accounting ramifications.

If you are interested in learning how to hedge FX balance sheet exposures, forecasted transactions, and net investments in foreign subsidiaries, start your training today and explore our real world examples of all three scenarios. Furthermore, you can use our FX Transaction Simulator and Foreign Subsidiary Consolidator to customize your own risk model using company specific variables that reflect your actual exposures. Our video based curriculum puts academic theory into practice, and can help you and your team deliver more effective bottom line results in a time efficient manner. Take the FX Initiative for your organization by subscribing here.

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The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Identify the Top Two FX Hedge Objectives

Companies that hedge foreign exchange must establish clear objectives in order to gauge the efficacy of their FX risk management program. While the priority of hedge objectives can vary between public and private companies, the same two overarching goals apply: (1) minimizing earnings volatility and (2) preserving cash flows. Gaining a better understanding of these two objectives can help organizations better decide how to allocate resources to achieve their desired economic and accounting results.

First, minimizing earnings volatility means neutralizing to the greatest extent possible the Income Statement impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rates. At the highest level, this requires aligning the accounting treatment for the derivative with the accounting treatment for the underlying exposure to achieve equal and offsetting gains and losses at the same time and in the same geographic area of the financial statements.

When hedging forecasted transactions that do not impact the Income Statement on a current basis, minimizing earning volatility often involves the use of elective “cash flow” hedge accounting treatment, which provides the timing benefit of deferring derivative mark-to-market gains and losses in equity during the forecast period and the geography benefit of accounting for the derivative gain or loss in the same financial statement line item as the forecasted exposure.

When hedging booked transactions that do impact the Income Statement on a current basis, neutralizing earning volatility refers to using the "default" accounting treatment, whereby the highly visible foreign exchange gains and losses related to the underlying exposure and the derivative hedging instrument work in tandem to create a largely equal offset in earnings that mitigates Income Statement volatility automatically at the end of each reporting period.

When hedging net investments in foreign subsidiaries that are accounted for in equity, reducing earning volatility means using elective "net investment" hedge accounting treatment, which allows for derivative gains and losses to be recorded in other comprehensive income (OCI), which is a component of equity, as part of the cumulative translation adjustment (CTA) until the point in time that a sale or liquidation event of the net investment occurs.

Second, preserving cash flows means reducing the variability in functional currency equivalent cash flows resulting from foreign currency transactions. When hedging booked and forecasted transactions, this means hedging to stabilize the amount of cash received or paid upon conversion of the foreign currency at a later date. When hedging net investments in foreign subsidiaries, preserving cash flows can involve a variety of strategies depending on the short and long term goals of the organization. For example, 3 different cash flow strategies include, (1) hedging excess cash balances that are held by foreign subsidiaries and that may eventually be remitted back to the parent, (2) hedging the value of a net investment position to preserve cash flows related to an anticipated sale or liquidation event of the foreign operation in the short or medium term, or (3) not hedging the position in a long term foreign subsidiary that may require cash settlement upon expiration of the derivative instrument.

While these concepts can get quite technical in detail, the overarching theme is that both public and private companies are focusing on the same two foreign exchange risk management hedging objectives: (1) minimizing earning volatility and (2) preserving cash flows. Public companies are often most concerned with mitigating periodic earnings volatility, which suggests they prioritize goal number 1 of minimizing earnings volatility over preserving cash flows. In contrast, private companies are usually more concerned about the economics over the accounting implications, which implies they focus more on preserving cash flows first and foremost. The key highlight is that public and private companies usually have different priorities between the same two FX hedge objectives.

To learn how your organization can prioritize and achieve your company’s specific hedging objectives, sign up for FX Initiative's currency risk management training to start learning best practices. We offer a complete continuing professional education (CPE) curriculum for controlling currency risk consisting of on-demand educational videos, interactive real-world examples, and live webinar events that can be customized to your organization’s particular needs. Take the FX Initiative today to learn how we help both Fortune 500 companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) understand, identify, assess and mitigate foreign exchange risk.

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The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Morningstar's Missing FX Risk Management

FX Initiative is fascinated with how global companies manage foreign exchange (FX) risk. This analysis focuses on Morningstar, Inc., a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. Founded by Joe Manseuto in Chicago in 1984, Morningstar’s timeline outlines their expansion into Japan in 1998, Australia, New Zealand and Canada in 1999, and the opening of Morningstar Europe, Morningstar Asia, and Morningstar Korea in 2000. Today, the company has operations in 27 countries as outlined in their 2016 annual report (10-K):

The company’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings offer 3 interesting highlights from a FX perspective:

1. Morningstar has direct exposure to 23+ currencies through their wholly owned or majority-owned operating subsidiaries.
2. 26% of Morningstar’s 2016 consolidated revenue was generated from operations outside of the United States.
3. Their most recent 10-Q for the second quarter of 2017 states that "approximately 69% of their cash, cash equivalents, and investments balance as of June 30, 2017 was held by their operations outside the United States."

The two main goals of a FX risk management program are to (1) minimize earnings volatility on the Income Statement and (2) preserve cash flows on the Balance Sheet. Hedging involves taking an offsetting position in a specific currency in order to reduce the impact of unfavorable foreign exchange rate fluctuations, whereby when the underlying position incurs a loss, the hedge incurs a gain, and vice versa. The goal of hedging currency risk is not to gain or lose, it’s to make the financial outcome more certain and predictable. Let’s examine Morningstar’s FX risk profile with a simple year over year comparison between 2015 and 2016 by examining their revenue, operating expense, and other income highlights.

First, let’s explore the impact to the Income Statement from a gross margin perspective (i.e. revenue minus operating expenses). In 2016, “foreign currency translations reduced revenue by about $9.5 million” and their “operating expense by $11.5 million”, for a $2.0 million favorable variance. In 2015, “foreign currency translations reduced revenue by about $26.9 million” and “operating expense by $23.9 million”, for a $3.0 million unfavorable variance.

Second, the impact to “Other income, net primarily includes foreign currency exchange gains and losses arising from the ordinary course of our business operations.” In 2016, “Other income, net” was a positive $6.1 million compared to a positive $1.2 million in 2015. This volatility comes from the “mark-to-market” revaluation of booked receivables and payables each period that is reported in earnings on a current basis. These exposures are booked and known, and serve as the foundation of foreign exchange “balance sheet hedge” programs that are employed by many companies.

As it relates to Morningstar’s discussion of their FX risk management strategy, they state “Our operations outside of the United States involve additional challenges that we may not be able to meet. There are risks inherent in doing business outside the United States, including challenges in currency exchange rates and exchange controls. These risks could hamper our ability to expand around the world, which may hurt our financial performance and ability to grow.” They also state they “do not expect to repatriate earnings from our international subsidiaries in the foreseeable future.”

While Morningstar clearly discloses their substantial currency risk, the company surprisingly states that "We don't engage in currency hedging or have any positions in derivative instruments to hedge our currency risk." Their 2016 annual report also goes on to state that “Foreign currency movements were a factor in our 2016 results, although to a lesser extent than in 2015, as continued strength in the U.S. dollar reduced revenue from our international operations when translated into U.S. dollars. This has been an ongoing trend for several years and reduced revenue by $9.5 million in 2016 and $26.9 million in 2015.”

Morningstar.com’s articles offer various investor perspectives on hedging FX risk. For example, the article “Hedge Your Currency Risk When Investing Abroad” mentions that “Investors should definitely invest globally and they should hedge out at least part of their foreign risk.” Another example from the article titled “The Impact of Foreign-Currency Movements on Equity Portfolios” is that “Betting on currency movements is generally a fool’s game and should be avoided by the average investor.” Applying this advice, it appears that Morningstar is invested globally but doesn’t hedge any part of their currency risk, and their decision not to hedge is a bet on FX.

Finding the right balance between risk and reward is a classic tradeoff for any investor or organization. Morningstar is a highly respected global thought leader when it comes to investing, and they have clearly analyzed their corporate exposure to FX risk as it relates to revenue, operating income and net investments (as shown in the screenshots below). Additionally, Morningstar has an array of publications on currency such as their Currency Category Handbook, and offers data services such as their Morningstar Foreign Exchange Feeds. The company seems to have the personnel, operations, and resources to manage FX risk.

From an enterprise risk management perspective, foreign exchange risk is a non-core business risk that often poses more of a threat than an opportunity, whereas core business risks are related the strengths that a company is rewarded for taking on, such as investing in new products and research and development. Therefore, hedging foreign exchange risk allows firms like Morningstar to budget more reliably when engaging in international business in order to focus on their core strategic initiatives more effectively.

What are your thoughts on Morningstar’s approach to FX risk management? Each market participant must define their own risk appetite, and there is no “standard" protocol. However, in closing this analysis, a quote from Gary Cohn, the Director of the National Economic Council and former president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs, comes to mind: “If you don't invest in risk management, it doesn't matter what business you're in, it's a risky business.” Join the conversation and share your thoughts on FX risk management in the comments section.

To learn more about FX risk management, sign up for FX Initiative’s currency risk management training. Our educational videos, interactive examples, and webinar events help simplify complex currency risk management issues using real-world scenarios from leading organizations such as Apple. Our mission is to help banking and corporate treasury professionals deliver effective currency risk management results in a time efficient manner. Start learning best practices for mitigating FX risk by taking the FX Initiative today! Click here to for more information >

Image Sources: Morningstar Inc. 2016 Annual Report (10-K)

Balancing Brexit & FX Balance Sheet Hedging

As Brexit continues to capture news headlines, FX Initiative is increasingly helping North American companies manage the currency risk associated with doing business in the United Kingdom (UK). Brexit refers to the prospective withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union (EU), which was voted on in June of 2016. Since the referendum, the value of the British pound (GBP) versus the US dollar (USD) has fluctuated from highs near 1.4500 levels in June of 2016 to lows near 1.2000 levels in January of 2017. This approximate 15% decline in value has prompted many international companies to adapt their foreign exchange (FX) hedging programs to better stabilize earnings and preserve cash flows.

American companies exporting to the United Kingdom have seen significant fluctuations in their GBP denominated revenues and accounts receivables (A/R), which are translated into USD in their financial statements for accounting purposes. To state the obvious, the 15% fluctuation in GBP/USD exchange rates over a 15 month period has created sizable swings in earnings and cash flows for firms that operate with a non-GBP functional currency. To mitigate this volatility, one major US pharmaceutical company needed to reconsider their FX balance sheet hedge program to better respond to the changing political landscape and unpredictable currency market prices.

Balance sheet hedging is by far the most common approach among multinational corporations when hedging foreign exchange risk, and in the context of Brexit, refers to hedging GBP denominated receivables and payables on the balance sheet as part of a systematic hedge program at each period or month end, or upon booking a material foreign currency denominated transaction. This US pharmaceutical company was previously hedging at each month end to adjust and match the amount of the their underlying GBP receivables with the amount of their GBP forward contract hedges. However, the majority of their monthly receivable bookings occurred on the 15th of each month, and their mid-month A/R bookings were largely unhedged from the middle of the month through month end.

To address this problem, FX Initiative helped assess the mechanics of their balance sheet hedge program by looking at their financial reporting process and specifically at their accounting booking convention. An accounting booking convention refers to the foreign exchange rate used to record a transaction on the financial statements. In this case, they were using the daily spot rate, which meant they were exposed to changes in exchange rates for each mid-month booking of a material GBP receivable transaction. By probing all the way down to the accounting booking convention, this US company was able to quickly and effectively enhance their balance sheet hedge program by adding one additional “true-up” hedge mid-month.

Their revised approach meant that rather than only hedging at the end of each month, the company was now adjusting the amounts on their forward contract hedge both mid-month and at month end. The result of this fundamental fix was that the company is now hedging over 90% of their GBP exposure for the entire month, and the FX swings in their monthly and quarterly earnings have declined by over 50%. Regardless of whether you are a FX risk management expert or novice, knowing where to diagnose a FX exposure is critical and having the ability to drill down to a technical level of detail such as an accounting booking convention can help companies conquer currency market challenges more efficiently and effectively.

FX Initiative’s training and consulting services can help your global organization establish and improve your foreign exchange balance sheet hedge program. We use real-world examples from Apple to demonstrate how a balance sheet hedge works in practice, and our risk modeling tools enable you to practice your approach prior to implementation to get comfortable with the economics and accounting. While events like Brexit are hard to predict, a consistent and ongoing foreign exchange risk management program can proactively protect against changing political, regulatory, and economic environments. FX hedging is about making the outcome more certain, so give your company the FX certainty and predictably it needs to succeed abroad by taking the FX Initiative!

Ready to build a better FX balance sheet hedge program? Click here to start your Currency Risk Management training!

Cheers,

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com

Grasping Groupon’s Passive FX Risk Management

FX Initiative analyzes how publicly traded companies manage foreign exchange risk. This analysis will focus on Groupon, a Chicago based worldwide e-commerce marketplace, and their passive approach to FX risk management. Using their 10-Q for the quarterly period ended June 30, 2017, let’s explore Groupon’s International segment and its FX impact on their Income Statement.

The Income Statement shows a company’s revenues and expenses during a particular period. The Income Statement in simplest terms totals revenues and subtracts expenses to find the bottom line or net income for the period. Using Groupon’s reported numbers from their Securities and Exchange filing, their International segment’s Income Statement is as follows:

^{_{Source: http://investor.groupon.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1490281-17-111}}

The words "foreign exchange", "foreign currency", and "FX" are mentioned 12 times in their earnings announcement, yet Groupon (unlike leading technology companies such as Apple and Google) is not managing their foreign exchange risk at all. Let’s examine Groupon’s FX risk profile by digging into their revenue, expense, and gross profit figures.

• Revenues - Groupon’s revenue increased $27 million in their International segment, but declined $13.8 million due to changes in foreign exchange rates. In other words, Groupon intentionally grew their International revenue by increasing transactions in their Goods category, but unintentionally lost over 50% of that growth due to unhedged foreign exchange risk.
• Expenses - Groupon’s International segment expenses (cost of revenue) increased $29.9 million, but declined $6.9 million due to changes in foreign exchange rates. This increase in expenses was attributable to increases in direct revenue transactions in their Goods category, and unhedged FX risk reduced those expenses favorably but unintentionally by roughly 23%.
• Gross Profit - Groupon’s International segment’s gross profit declined by over $19 million or nearly 10%, and $6.9 million was lost due to unhedged foreign exchange risk. Not only did Groupon’s International segment report lower gross profit across all three of their Local, Goods and Travel categories, they lost even more money as a result of not managing their FX risk exposures.

Groupon’s International segment accounts for approximately 30% of their total revenue, which is a material amount. In comparison, Apple’s International sales accounted for 61% of their third quarter 2017 revenue, and they were awarded the Best Corporation in the World for FX Management by Global Finance Magazine in their 2017 Corporate FX Awards.

Whether you are a shareholder, vendor, creditor, employee or layperson, do you think Groupon should be managing their foreign exchange risk? FX Initiative’s training uses real world examples from Apple to demonstrate how multinational corporations like Groupon can significantly improve their international performance by employing currency risk management best practices.

If you are interested in learning how your organization can improve their foreign exchange risk management program, sign up for FX Initiative’s currency risk management training today. Our educational videos, interactive examples, and webinar events simplify complex FX risk management issues and equip you with actionable intelligence to effectively mitigate FX risk.

Ready to learn FX Risk Management Best Practices? Click here to get started!

The FX Initiative Team
support@fxinitiative.com